OPIS Shares on Tariffs, Refining Trends, and the Future of Fuel Markets at 黑料社区Connect
Global and domestic energy markets are navigating shifting trade policies and regulatory requirements along with evolving refining capacities, which are all affecting the availability of fuel as well as fuel prices. , offered a keynote address during and shared his insights into how tariffs, geopolitical events, and refining trends could shape the energy landscape in the coming years.
Cinquegrana’s address was generously sponsored by . McLane’s support allows the 黑料社区Foundation to continue offering industry insights all year.
Tariff Impacts: Stranded Buyers and Sellers
The biggest impact from tariffs would come from Canada. 鈥淩efineries in the Midwest, Rockies and West Coast would be greatly impacted. The Gulf Coast to a lesser extent,鈥� Cinquegrana said, adding that Canada would have to find new export outlets. 鈥淚n essence, you have stranded buyers and stranded sellers.鈥�
Global disruptions would have more limited impacts on the U.S.
However, an end to the Russia-Ukraine war would be bearish for the market as Russian oil returns to the market.
Refining Trends and Market Outlook
Data from the shows that refiners are producing more diesel than is in demand. 鈥淚 think as we switch from winter blend to summer blend, those numbers will improve,鈥� Cinquegrana said.
However, refining margins, particularly on gasoline, have not improved and diesel is well below the 2022/2023 timeframe. Cinquegrana added that 2025 has the potential to be equally as soft as 2024.
For now, gloabal refining capacity should be able to keep up with demand growth. There are some new refineries coming online, but two in the U.S. and one in the U.K. are closing.
Renewable Diesel鈥檚 Expanding Role
Renewable diesel (RD) capacity continues to increase, surpassing biodiesel production. Most of the RD currently produced is consumed in California and the West Coast.
Cinquegrana said there are more situations where RD is staying local, including in Louisiana near a refinery producing the fuel.
Tax changes could alter the amount of renewable fuels being produced. The $1 Biodiesel Blenders鈥� Tax Credit expired at the end of 2024. 黑料社区continues to advocate for an extension of the BTC. 聽In 2025, a new 鈥淪ection 45Z鈥� Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit went into effect. Cinquegrana said, 鈥淎n estimated 4.6 billion gallons of biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel is going to be impacted by the tax change.鈥�
Fossil Fuels Remain in Demand
Although demand for fossil fuels is in a secular decline, especially for gasoline, Cinquegrana said they will remain a key energy source for years to come.
Over the past 12 years, more than 193 million light-duty vehicles have been purchased in America, and almost 98% of them run on internal combustion engines. 鈥淭he vehicle fleet doesn鈥檛 turn over quickly,鈥� Cinquegrana said, adding that the fleet typically lasts 10 to 12 years.
Cinquegrana was among several industry thought leaders who spoke during .
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